You're much more likely to die from from mundane causes that you don't worry about, than many of the things that worry you most.
Example: SARs. Bird flu. Anthrax. Mad Cow. Chickenpox. Chickenpox? Chickenpox is FAR more likely to kill you than the preceding unlikly illnesses.
Odds of dying is a tricky thing to figure out. At a basic level, your odds can be stated as a general member of the population, ignoring any risk factors. For example, if you're never pregnant, you won't die in childbirth. Also, poor people with no prenatal care are most likely to suffer complications, and thus more likely to die. Much of my work on this site will focus in determining these risk factors are, what the size of these populations are, and refining the numbers to get the best risk numbers possible.
That said, there's still real value in the base numbers: Here's what I have so far.
| Event | Deaths | Population | Yearly Odds | Lifetime Odds | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Firework mishaps | 5 | 287 million | 1 in 55 million | ||
| California Lotto Jackpot win | 1 in 41 million | Source: California Lotto Website | |||
| Throwing heads 25 times in a row on a coin toss | 1 in 33.5 million | Source: Basic Math (2^25) | |||
| Florida Lotto Jackpot win | 1 in 23 million | Source: Florida Lotto Website | |||
| Death by poisonous snakebite | 12 | 287 million | 1 in 23 million | ||
| Mauled to death by a dog | 26 | 287 million | 1 in 10.6 million | ||
| Struck and killed by lightning | 50 | 287 million | 1 in 5.5 million | ||
| Killed by bees | 54 | 287 million | 1 in 5 million | ||
| Legally Executed by the State | 80 | 287 million | 1 in 3.4 million | ||
| Mishaps on horseback | 97 | 287 million | 1 in 2.8 million | ||
| Chickenpox | 100 | 287 million | 1 in 2.7 million | source: CDC website | |
| Throw heads 20 times in a row | 1 in 1 million | Source: Math 2^20 | |||
| Death in childbirth | 391 | 287 million | 1 in 700,000 | Really need to get a better population number here. How many pregnent people (not births) per year? | |
| Odds of a Royal Flush, 5 card stud | 1 in 650,000 | From some random website. | |||
| Dying while riding a bicycle. | 740 | 287 million | 1 in 372,000 | ||
| Death by Gallstone | 2975 | 287 million | 1 in 91,000 | Really? That still happens? How awful. | |
| Throw heads 16 times in a row on a coin toss | 1 in 65,000 | Source: Math. 2^16 | |||
| Odds of winning California Lotto on 1,000 tickets | 1 in 41,000 | Source: California Lotto web site, and math. | |||
| Hepititus C | approx 8,000 | 287 million | 1 in 34,000 | ||
| Murdered with a gun | 10,801 | 287 million | 1 in 25,000 | ||
| Brain Cancer | 12,764 | 287 million | 1 in 21,000 | Not just for soap operas. Who knew it was so common? | |
| AIDS | 15,245 | 287 million | 1 in 18,000 | ||
| Breast Cancer | 41,100 | 287 million | 1 in 6,600 | Men very rarely get breast cancer, so we need to change the pop number | |
| Heads 12 times in a row on a coin flip | 1 in 4096 | ||||
| Fatal Flu | approx 63,000 | 287 million | 1 in 4,000 | This number is controversial. Also, deaths are skewed massivly toward people with compromised immune systems, primarily the elderly. | |
| Lung Cancer | 152,000 | 287 million | 1 in 1800 | Skewed highly for smokers. | |
| Dying from every cause | 2.4 million people | 287 million | 1 in 113 | 1 in 1 | Everybody dies eventually. Yearly number massively skewed, presumably because of the age of the population. |
US Population of 287 million based on 2002 census figures, at nsc site below. Note this seems to ignore the oft-reported 11 million illegals, so that's relevant. Lifetime figures are determined by dividing yearly odds by 77.8, the average life ecspectancy as of 2002, again per the NSC site. I'll get better cites when I have time.
Source for disease odds:
http://www.wrongdiagnosis.com/lists/deaths.htm
Source for injury odds:
http://www.nsc.org/lrs/statinfo/odds.htm
CDC and NCHS data:
http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/deaths.htm